Blackstone (BX) Options: AI Flags Bearish Opportunity

Blackstone is a global alternative asset manager, offering investment strategies across various asset classes. Its core businesses are divided into four segments: Real Estate, managing investments through 'Blackstone Real Estate Partners' ('BREP'), 'Blackstone Property Partners' ('BPP'), 'Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust, Inc.' ('BREIT'), 'Blackstone European Property Income' ('BEPIF'), and 'Blackstone Real Estate Debt Strategies' ('BREDS'); Private Equity, encompassing 'Blackstone Capital Partners' ('BCP'), 'Blackstone Tactical Opportunities', 'Blackstone Life Sciences' ('BXLS'), 'Blackstone Growth' ('BXG'), 'Blackstone Infrastructure Partners' ('BIP'), and 'Strategic Partners'; Credit & Insurance ('BXCI'), providing solutions across corporate and asset-based credit; and Multi-Asset Investing ('BXMA'), which includes absolute return and multi-strategy platforms. Blackstone targets institutional and individual investors, including pension funds and insurance companies. The company differentiates itself through its scale, diversified business, rigorous investment process, and strong client relationships, aiming to strengthen portfolio companies and assets to thrive in the global economy.

BX exhibits a clearly bearish trend. The price has declined significantly over the past 90 days, with the most recent close at $142.925. This is below the 50-day SMA at $167.91 and the 200-day SMA, confirming a downtrend. Momentum indicators reinforce this bearish outlook; the MACD is negative and diverging further from its signal line, and the RSI is at 26.65, indicating oversold conditions, although this could also imply a potential bounce. The ADX is at 33.64, suggesting a strong trend is in place. The STOCHk is at 9.26, also suggesting oversold conditions. The price is below the lower Bollinger Band at 144.18, indicating high volatility and potential for further downside. While oversold conditions might lead to a short-term bounce, the overall trend and momentum strongly favor continued bearish movement in the next 1–3 months. The recent price action confirms a consistent series of lower highs and lower lows, suggesting strong selling pressure remains.

Blackstone's MD&A reveals a generally positive trajectory. `Management and Advisory Fees, Net` increased 14% to $2,035.5 million for the three months ended June 30, 2025, and 12% to $3,939.8 million for the six-month period, driven by Private Equity. `Incentive Fees` also rose, albeit modestly, increasing 4% to $195.4 million for the quarter. Investment Income surged, contributing significantly to a 33% increase in total revenues for the quarter. While total expenses also climbed 18%, this was largely due to increased compensation tied to higher revenues. A key indicator of future performance, `Total Assets Under Management` (AUM), grew to $1,211.2 billion, a 4% increase for the quarter and 7% for the six-month period. Net Accrued Performance Revenues also increased from $6,214 million to $6,608 million. The company highlights that the ultimate outcome of ongoing tariff negotiations could have an adverse impact on the U.S. economy and growth expectations as well as contribute to slower-than-anticipated interest rate decreases in a manner that could adversely affect investor sentiment and the market environment. The six-month `Net cash (used in) provided by operating activities` is not explicitly stated, but the MD&A narrative suggests a positive cash flow trend supported by increased fees and realized investment income.

Blackstone's Q2 2025 earnings call projects a moderately bullish outlook, driven by strong growth in fee-related earnings and assets under management. Distributable earnings increased 25% year-over-year to $1.6 billion, and fee-related earnings grew 31%, described by CEO Schwarzman as 'one of the best quarters in our history.' AUM reached a record $1.2 trillion, up 13% year-over-year, fueled by inflows of $52 billion in the quarter. Management highlighted the strength of their private credit and private wealth platforms, with Jon Gray noting the robust demand for private credit and the enduring premium over liquid markets. While real estate faces challenges, there's optimism about a future recovery, with Gray stating, 'the building blocks for this recovery are clearly coming into place.' The company anticipates an acceleration of net realizations exiting this year and moving into 2026, supported by a record $604 billion of performance revenue-eligible AUM. Overall, Blackstone is well-positioned to benefit from secular tailwinds, particularly in areas like digital and energy infrastructure, and is optimistic about the potential for increased transaction activity.

BX's financial performance over the past several quarters reveals a generally positive trend, although some aspects warrant attention. Revenue has increased from $3,156.56M in Q1 2024 to $3,088.64M in Q3 2025, demonstrating revenue stability. The `grossProfitRatio` has remained consistently high, fluctuating between 0.95 and 1.0, indicating strong profitability at the gross level. Operating cash flow has been consistently positive, with $1,109.22M in Q1 2025 and $888.50M in Q2 2025. However, there is no cash flow data for Q3 2025. Total debt has fluctuated, starting at $11,691.82M in Q1 2024, peaking at $13,391.93M in Q1 2025, and decreasing to $12,002.65M in Q3 2025. Overall, BX demonstrates strong revenue and profitability, with positive operating cash flow and manageable debt. Further analysis of the missing cash flow data for Q3 2025 would be necessary to complete the analysis.

The company demonstrates a moderately bullish profile, characterized by solid revenue growth and improving profitability. Revenue has consistently increased, indicating strong market demand. The gross margin exhibits stability, suggesting efficient cost management. Return on Equity (ROE) has shown positive movement, signaling enhanced profitability and efficient use of shareholder equity. The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, while elevated, might be justifiable given the growth trajectory and positive ROE trend. The Debt-to-Equity ratio shows a slight increase, which warrants monitoring, but is counterbalanced by a healthy Current Ratio, implying sufficient liquidity to meet short-term obligations. Overall, the company presents a favorable picture with growth and profitability, though the leverage should be watched closely. The combination of growth and profitability suggests potential for continued positive performance over the next 12 months.