EPR Properties (EPR) – Bearish Signal for Put Buyers?

EPR Properties is a REIT specializing in experiential real estate. The company's core business involves investing in properties that facilitate out-of-home leisure and recreation, such as 'theatre properties', 'eat & play properties' (including golf entertainment complexes like 'Topgolf'), 'attraction properties' (waterparks, amusement parks), 'ski properties', 'experiential lodging', 'fitness & wellness properties', 'gaming properties', and 'cultural properties'. EPR also has a legacy portfolio of 'education properties'. EPR primarily targets operators of experiential venues and seeks to establish long-term relationships by providing capital for multiple properties. The company differentiates itself by focusing on properties with proven business models, enduring value, and solid credit quality tenants, while also emphasizing triple-net lease structures that minimize risk and provide predictable income streams.

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EPR's technical outlook is decidedly bearish. The stock has experienced a significant downtrend over the past 90 days, falling from approximately $58.26 on June 30th to $49.48 as of November 4th. The price is now well below its 50-day SMA of $54.94 and its EMA 21 of $53.22, confirming the downward momentum. The MACD is negative at -1.43, and the MACD histogram is also negative, indicating accelerating bearish momentum. The RSI is at a very oversold level of 31.54, which might suggest a potential for a short-term bounce, but given the strength of the downtrend, this is unlikely to be sustained. The ADX is elevated at 27.19, signaling a strong trend. The stochastic oscillator (STOCHk) is at 15.49, further confirming the oversold condition but not necessarily indicating an imminent reversal. The ROC 20 is deeply negative at -9.04, confirming the strong downward price pressure. Overall, the technical indicators point to continued weakness in EPR's price action over the next 1-3 months, with limited evidence of a potential bullish reversal in the near term.

EPR Properties' MD&A presents a somewhat mixed picture. Total revenue saw a slight increase of 1.0% to $182.3 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $180.5 million in 2024. For the nine-month period, total revenue increased 2.8% to $535.4 million. Minimum rent increased due to property acquisitions and developments, offset by revenue decreases from property dispositions. Percentage rent increased due to higher rent from theatre tenants. Net income available to common shareholders per diluted share increased 49.1% for the quarter and 37.8% for the nine-month period, while FFOAA per diluted share increased 5.4% and 4.7% respectively, indicating improved profitability. Investment spending decreased from $214.6 million to $140.8 million for the nine-month period. Net cash provided by operating activities increased from $300.2 million to $323.2 million for the nine-month period. The company repaid $300.0 million of senior unsecured notes using borrowings under its revolving credit facility and has $629.6 million of debt maturities due in 2026. Management anticipates that cash on hand, cash from operations, funds available under the unsecured revolving credit facility, and proceeds from asset dispositions will provide adequate liquidity. However, the uncertainty regarding international trade environment and its potential impact on tenants' ability to meet obligations is a concern.

EPR Properties' Q2 2025 earnings call projects a moderately bullish outlook, driven by solid earnings growth and an improved cost of capital. CEO Greg Silvers noted that Q2 results 'underscore sustained momentum across our diversified portfolio,' with a disciplined approach to capital allocation. CFO Mark Peterson reported FFO as adjusted at $1.26 per share and AFFO at $1.24 per share, both up 3.3%. The company's improved cost of capital allows for a more 'aggressive growth posture' and the pursuit of larger deals, with a pipeline including both existing and new partners. Strategic capital recycling is also progressing ahead of expectations, further positioning the portfolio with productive experiential assets. Consolidated coverage increased slightly from 2.0 to 2.1. While investment spending guidance remains unchanged at $200 million to $300 million, disposition guidance was increased to a range of $130 million to $145 million. Box office recovery remains a key driver, with North American box office for calendar year 2025 estimated between $9.3 million and $9.7 million.

EPR's financial performance presents a mixed picture. Revenue has fluctuated, starting at $155.2M in Q1 2024, peaking at $206.2M in Q3 2025, and ending at $163.1M in the most recent quarter. Gross profit ratio has exhibited some volatility, with the latest quarter showing a ratio of 1.136, compared to 0.904 in Q1 2024. Operating cash flow also varies, with the most recent quarter showing $136.5M in Q3 2025, suggesting positive cash generation from operations in that period. Total debt has remained relatively stable, starting at $3040.8M in Q1 2024 and ending at $3011.3M in Q1 2025, and is currently at $0 in Q3 2025. Net income experienced a significant drop in the latest quarter to -$141.4M. Overall, while revenue has shown some growth, the volatility in profitability, cash flow, and net income warrant careful monitoring. The stable debt level offers some reassurance, but the negative net income in the latest quarter is a cause for concern.

The company demonstrates a moderately bullish profile, characterized by solid revenue growth and improving profitability. Revenue has consistently increased, indicating strong market demand. The gross margin exhibits stability, suggesting effective cost management. Return on Equity (ROE) has improved, showcasing efficient capital allocation. While the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is elevated, it is potentially justified by the company's growth prospects. The Debt-to-Equity ratio has decreased, reflecting a healthier balance sheet and reduced financial risk. The current ratio is at a healthy level, implying sufficient liquidity to meet short-term obligations. Overall, the company presents a favorable combination of growth, profitability, and balance sheet strength, supporting a positive outlook for the next 12 months, although the high P/E ratio warrants close monitoring.