NSA Downtrend Confirmed: AI Signals Bearish Options Play

National Storage Affiliates Trust is a self-managed real estate investment trust focused on owning, operating, and acquiring self-storage properties, primarily within the top 100 MSAs in the United States. As of December 31, 2024, they operated a diversified portfolio of properties under brands such as 'iStorage', 'Move It', 'Moove In', 'Northwest', 'RightSpace', 'SecurCare', and 'Southern'. The company targets a broad customer base seeking self-storage solutions. Their business strategy involves expanding their national platform through strategic acquisitions and partnerships with institutional investors, while integrating operations through centralized initiatives. They also aim to maximize property-level cash flow and participate in industry consolidation, leveraging their property management platform to provide services for strategic joint ventures.

NSA reported Q3 earnings that beat analyst estimates on both FFO and revenue. The FFO of $0.57 per share exceeded the consensus of $0.56, and revenue of $188.702 million surpassed the expected $182.780 million. While the FFO represents a decrease from the previous year, the beat suggests underlying strength in NSA's operations and positive investor sentiment. Furthermore, NSA announced a new joint venture with Investment Real Estate Management, LLC (IRE), which is generally a positive catalyst, indicating expansion and potential revenue growth. Given the earnings beat and the new JV announcement, the short-term outlook for NSA is bullish. Options traders should consider a strategy that profits from a potential price increase over the next 1-2 weeks. The positive earnings surprise is likely to attract investors, and the joint venture signals future growth opportunities. The combination of these factors points toward upward price movement.

NSA's technical outlook is decidedly bearish, warranting a low score. The stock price has experienced a significant downtrend over the past 90 days, falling from approximately $32.00 to close recently at $29.875. The price is trading well below its 50-day SMA of $31.074 and its 21-day EMA of $30.697, confirming the downtrend. The absence of a 200-day SMA further limits insights into longer-term trends, but the persistent decline suggests substantial weakness. Momentum indicators reinforce the bearish signal; the MACD is negative and trending downwards, with the MACD line below the signal line, while the RSI is at 32.01, indicating oversold conditions, which can sometimes precede a bounce, but in this context, it simply confirms strong downward pressure. The stochastic oscillator also shows very low values, which typically indicates oversold conditions, but this signal is overwhelmed by the other bearish indicators. Overall, the price action and technical indicators suggest a high probability of continued downward movement in the coming 1–3 months.

National Storage Affiliates Trust's MD&A presents a concerning financial picture. For the three months ended September 30, 2025, total revenue decreased by $4.9 million, or 2.5%, primarily due to a decline in total portfolio average occupancy from 86.0% to 84.5% and the sale of 12 properties. Rental revenue also decreased by $4.6 million, or 2.6%. For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, total revenue decreased by $14.3 million, or 2.5%, with rental revenue down by $20.0 million, or 3.8%, again attributed to lower occupancy (83.8% vs 85.8% in the prior year) and property dispositions. Same-store rental revenues decreased $14.4 million, or 2.9%, for the nine months ended September 30, 2025. Interest expense increased by $7.4 million, or 6.4%, for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, due to the maturity of interest rate swaps. Net income attributable to National Storage Affiliates Trust decreased significantly, from $94.79 million to $50.89 million for the nine-month period. Cash provided by operating activities also decreased, from $282.9 million to $265.7 million for the same period. The company's liquidity position shows a decrease in cash and cash equivalents of $24.1 million from December 31, 2024. While some expenses decreased due to the internalization of the PRO structure, the overall trend indicates weakening performance.

The earnings call for National Storage Affiliates Trust reveals a mildly bearish sentiment, primarily driven by underperformance against expectations and lowered guidance. CEO Dave Cramer acknowledged that same-store NOI and core FFO per share 'fell short of our expectations,' citing macroeconomic conditions, interest rate pressures, increased competition from new supply, and delays in realizing the benefits of the pro internalization. CFO Brandon Togashi announced adjusted guidance ranges, now anticipating same-store revenue growth of negative 2% to 3%, same-store NOI growth of negative 4.25% to 5.75%, and core FFO per share of $2.17 to $2.23. Despite some positive trends such as sequential occupancy increases, these were not sufficient to offset the headwinds. While management expressed confidence in the long-term outlook, the combination of lowered guidance, ongoing integration challenges, and a challenging macroeconomic environment suggests potential near-term pressure on the stock. The company expects to be a net seller of assets for the year and focus on improving its balance sheet metrics.

NSA's financial performance presents a mixed picture. Revenue has fluctuated, starting at $196.1M in Q1 2024 and ending at $188.7M in Q3 2025. Gross profit ratio has been volatile, starting at 0.721 in Q1 2024, reaching a high of 0.727 in Q3 2024, before data becomes unavailable. Operating cash flow is positive at $79.8M in Q2 2025 but there is no data available for Q3 2025, making it difficult to assess the current cash-generating ability. Total debt decreased from $3.3B in Q1 2024 to $22.3M in Q3 2025, which is a positive sign for the company's solvency. The company's net income also decreased from $59M in Q1 2024 to $30.7M in Q3 2025. The absence of data for Q3 2023 and Q3 2025 cash flow statements and balance sheets, respectively, makes a comprehensive assessment challenging. Overall, the inconsistency in profitability and the limited cash flow data raise concerns about the company's financial health.

The company presents a moderately bullish investment profile based on its financial data. Revenue has shown positive growth, indicating increasing market demand or successful market penetration. The gross margin is healthy, suggesting efficient cost management in production or service delivery. A strong return on equity (ROE) signals effective utilization of shareholder investments to generate profit. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio suggests the stock is trading at a premium, but this could be justified by the company's growth prospects and profitability. A manageable debt-to-equity ratio indicates a reasonable level of financial leverage. The current ratio, being greater than 1, demonstrates the company's ability to cover short-term liabilities with its current assets, further solidifying its financial health. Overall, the combination of revenue growth, healthy profitability metrics, and a solid balance sheet makes the company an attractive investment for the next 12 months, although the elevated P/E ratio warrants careful monitoring.