SNDR: Bearish Signals for Schneider National – Time to Consider Puts?

Schneider is a major provider of multimodal surface transportation and logistics solutions in North America. The company's core business includes 'truckload' services (over-the-road freight via various trailer types), 'intermodal' services (door-to-door container transport combining rail and drayage), and 'logistics' services (freight brokerage, supply chain management, warehousing, and import/export services). These services cater to a diverse customer base across industries like consumer products, retail, auto, chemicals, and food and beverage, throughout the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Schneider differentiates itself by offering an integrated, multimodal approach centered on customer value and service. This includes utilizing a technology platform, 'Schneider FreightPower', to connect customers and carriers and leveraging its trailer network. The company also emphasizes safety, sustainability, and an inclusive culture to attract and retain associates.

The short-term outlook for SNDR is slightly bearish. The primary driver is the Citigroup analyst's decision to maintain a 'Neutral' rating while lowering the price target from $25 to $23. While a maintained 'Neutral' rating isn't inherently negative, the reduced price target signals a lack of confidence in SNDR's near-term growth potential. The magnitude of the price target reduction, while not drastic, suggests a moderate downward revision of expectations. Given the absence of countervailing positive news or macro catalysts, this analyst action is likely to exert downward pressure on the stock price over the next 1-2 weeks. Options traders should consider this slightly negative sentiment when formulating their strategies, particularly those involving short-dated calls. The lack of macro news reinforces the focus on this analyst downgrade as the key driver. Further analyst revisions or sector-specific news could alter this outlook.

SNDR's technical outlook is bearish. The stock price has experienced a significant decline over the past 90 days, falling from approximately $24.45 at the end of June to $21.38 by the end of October before a slight recovery to $21.935 on November 4th. The price is currently below its 50-day SMA (22.95) and 200-day SMA (24.29), confirming the downtrend. The 21-day EMA is also trending downwards, currently at 22.37. Momentum indicators also suggest continued weakness. The MACD is negative (-0.30), and while the MACDh shows some convergence, it’s not enough to signal a trend reversal. The RSI is at 41.82, indicating oversold conditions, but not at extreme levels that would typically precede a strong bounce. The ADX is at 20.80, suggesting a defined trend, but not an exceptionally strong one. The stochastic oscillator (STOCHk) is at 21.44, which is low, but the STOCHd is only slightly higher at 22.60, indicating continued downward pressure. Given these factors, SNDR appears poised for further declines over the next 1-3 months.

The company's MD&A reveals a mixed performance picture. For the three months ended September 30, 2025, operating revenues increased by approximately 10% to '$1,452.4 million' from '$1,315.7 million' in 2024. However, net income decreased by approximately 37% to '$19.4 million' compared to '$30.6 million' in the same period of 2024. This decline was attributed to increased expenses, including salaries, wages, insurance costs, and depreciation, largely related to the Cowan acquisition. For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, 'net cash provided by operating activities' decreased to '$451.4 million' from '$486.6 million' in 2024. The company highlights that 'salaries, wages, and benefits increased $54.8 million, or 16%', impacting profitability. While Truckload revenues increased due to the Cowan acquisition, Logistics income decreased due to increased headcount from the same acquisition and lower brokerage volume. Management anticipates that cash generated from operations, together with amounts available under credit facilities, will be sufficient to meet requirements for the foreseeable future. However, increased interest expenses and prior year claims development in insurance costs are creating headwinds.

Schneider's Q2 2025 earnings call paints a moderately optimistic picture, with management highlighting both achievements and persistent challenges. While adjusted diluted earnings per share came in at $0.21, the company is maintaining a degree of caution, 'trimming the high end of our previous guidance' for the full year 2025 to $0.75-$0.95. This adjustment reflects ongoing 'trade policy uncertainty and the retreat in spot rates through July'. Despite this, CEO Mark Rourke emphasized the company's focus on 'restoring margins while positioning the business to maximize through cycle returns'. Truckload earnings improved nearly 60% sequentially and over 30% year-over-year. Intermodal revenues, excluding fuel surcharge, were up 5% year-over-year. Management also noted positive trends in customer allocations and win rates, particularly in Intermodal, 'the latter of which are at a level not seen since 2022'. Schneider is also focused on cost containment, targeting over $40 million in savings, including synergies from the Cowan Systems acquisition. While the environment remains uncertain, Schneider believes it's 'well positioned to capitalize on the improvement' should a stronger market materialize.

SNDR's financial performance presents a somewhat neutral outlook. Revenue has generally increased, rising from $1,319M in Q1 2024 to $1,452.4M in Q3 2025, indicating growth. However, the `grossProfitRatio` has fluctuated significantly, starting at 0.045 in Q1 2024 and reaching 0.375 in Q3 2025, suggesting inconsistent profitability. Operating cash flow is positive at $184.2M in the most recent quarter (Q3 2025), indicating the company is generating cash from its operations. The total debt decreased from $306M in Q1 2024 to $522.2M in Q3 2025, indicating an increase in leverage. Overall, while SNDR demonstrates revenue growth and positive operating cash flow, the fluctuating profitability and increasing debt levels present potential concerns for its near-term financial health. The company will need to manage costs and debt effectively to sustain its growth trajectory.

The company presents a moderately bullish investment profile based on its financial data. Revenue has shown positive growth, indicating increasing market demand or successful market penetration. The gross margin is healthy, suggesting efficient cost management in production or service delivery. A strong return on equity (ROE) signals effective utilization of shareholder investments to generate profit. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio suggests the stock is trading at a premium, but this could be justified by the company's growth prospects and profitability. A manageable debt-to-equity ratio indicates a reasonable level of financial leverage. The current ratio, being greater than 1, demonstrates the company's ability to cover short-term liabilities with its current assets, further solidifying its financial health. Overall, the combination of revenue growth, healthy profitability metrics, and a solid balance sheet makes the company an attractive investment for the next 12 months, although the elevated P/E ratio warrants careful monitoring.