Is SPR Poised for a Put Play? AI Bearish Radar

Spirit AeroSystems is a major non-OEM manufacturer of aerostructures for commercial airplanes, military platforms, and business/regional jets. Core products include fuselages, integrated wings and wing components, pylons, and nacelles. The company operates through three segments: Commercial, serving customers like Boeing and Airbus with aerostructures for programs like the 'B737', 'A320' families; Defense & Space, focusing on structural components for military aircraft; and Aftermarket, providing MRO services and spare parts. Spirit differentiates itself through its design and manufacturing capabilities using both metallic and composite materials. It maintains long-term supply agreements, particularly with Boeing, acting as the exclusive supplier for many products previously manufactured by Boeing itself. The company also emphasizes research and development to maintain its competitive position.

The news landscape for Spirit AeroSystems (SPR) over the next 1-2 weeks appears neutral. While SPR is mentioned in a \

SPR exhibits a bearish technical outlook based on its 90-day price history and current indicator values. The stock price has declined from a high of approximately $42.33 in late July to around $36 as of early November. The price is currently below its 21-day EMA ($38.36) and 50-day SMA ($39.26), and is trending downward. The MACD at -0.51 is well below its signal line (-0.27), with a negative MACDh of -0.24, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The RSI is at 35.48, indicating oversold conditions, however, this could also signal continued downward pressure rather than an imminent reversal. The ADX is at 17.35, indicating a weak trend. The stochastic oscillator (STOCHk) at 12.68 and STOCHd at 17.24 also suggest bearish momentum. The ROC20 is negative at -7.32, confirming the recent downtrend. The lower Bollinger Band is at 36.42, suggesting that the price may continue to fall. Overall, the technical indicators point towards continued bearish momentum in the short to medium term.

Spirit AeroSystems' MD&A reveals significant financial challenges and uncertainty. For the three months ended October 2, 2025, `Net revenues` increased by 7.8% to $1,585.4 million compared to $1,470.6 million in the prior year, driven by increased Boeing, Airbus and Defense & Space revenues. However, the `Gross loss` widened to ($619.6) million compared to ($246.0) million in the same period of the prior year, primarily due to higher forward loss charges and lower program margins on Boeing programs. For the nine months ended October 2, 2025, the `Net cash used in operating activities` was ($750.4) million, an improvement from the ($1,257.5) million outflow in the prior year, reflecting improved production flow and deliveries to Boeing. Despite this, the company expresses 'substantial doubt' about its ability to continue as a going concern, citing net losses of $1,968.2 million for the nine months ended October 2, 2025, and a debt balance of $4,338.6 million. The company's future is heavily reliant on the completion of the merger with Boeing and the Airbus transactions, as well as its ability to secure additional customer advances and restructure operations. The MD&A highlights significant risks, including supply chain fragility, labor disputes, and the potential for additional forward losses, painting a bearish picture for the near term.

The Spirit AeroSystems earnings call paints a concerning picture, primarily due to disruptions in the 737 program and ongoing commercial disagreements with Airbus. While CEO Pat Shanahan expresses pride in the team and highlights progress in stabilizing operations, the financial results and outlook are decidedly negative. CFO Mark Suchinski noted that the implementation of Boeing's product verification process has 'created delayed delivery acceptance,' leading to increased inventory and lower cash flow. The company expects to remain at a production rate of approximately 31 aircraft per month for the rest of the year, lower than previously planned. Furthermore, Airbus-related issues resulted in significant forward losses of $281 million and $167 million for the A350 and A220 programs, respectively, due to the inability to reach a commercial agreement. These losses include anticipated performance obligations extending beyond 2026. While the Defense & Space segment performed well, the overall tone suggests continued near-term challenges, making a bullish outlook difficult to justify.

SPR's financial performance reveals a concerning trend over the last several quarters. Revenue has fluctuated, starting at $1,702.8M in Q1 2024 and declining to $1,585.4M in Q3 2025, indicating inconsistent top-line performance. Profitability is a significant issue, as the `grossProfitRatio` has been consistently negative, reaching as low as -0.3908 in the latest quarter. Operating cash flow has also been negative for the majority of the period, with the most recent quarter showing an outflow of -$187.2M, signaling potential liquidity problems. Furthermore, the company's solvency is deteriorating, with `totalDebt` increasing from $4,165.1M in Q1 2024 to $4,405.7M in Q3 2025. The combination of declining profitability, negative cash flow, and increasing debt raises serious concerns about the company's financial stability and its ability to sustain operations in the near term. The negative equity of -$4,518.1M in Q3 2025 further underscores these challenges.

The company presents a moderately bullish investment profile based on its financial data. Revenue has shown positive growth, indicating increasing market demand or successful market penetration. The gross margin is healthy, suggesting efficient cost management in production or service delivery. A strong return on equity (ROE) signals effective utilization of shareholder investments to generate profit. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio suggests the stock is trading at a premium, but this could be justified by the company's growth prospects and profitability. A manageable debt-to-equity ratio indicates a reasonable level of financial leverage. The current ratio, being greater than 1, demonstrates the company's ability to cover short-term liabilities with its current assets, further solidifying its financial health. Overall, the combination of revenue growth, healthy profitability metrics, and a solid balance sheet makes the company an attractive investment for the next 12 months, although the elevated P/E ratio warrants careful monitoring.