UHAL: Bearish Downtrend Signals Potential Put Play

U-Haul is North America's largest 'do-it-yourself' moving and storage operator. Its core business revolves around providing rental trucks, trailers, self-storage units, and portable moving and storage units ('U-Box' program) along with related moving supplies such as 'U-Haul brand' boxes and packing materials. The primary target market is 'do-it-yourself' household movers in the United States and Canada, including individuals, families, college students, and home improvement enthusiasts. U-Haul differentiates itself through a broad geographic coverage via a network of Company-operated stores and independent dealers, offering convenient 'one-stop' shopping. The company also emphasizes sustainable practices and incorporates features like fuel-efficient equipment and reusable components. Additionally, U-Haul provides services like hitch installation, propane refilling, and online marketplaces connecting customers with independent service providers and storage affiliates.

UHAL's technical outlook is bearish. The stock has experienced a significant downtrend over the past 90 days, falling from approximately $64 to $53.62. The price is currently below its 50-day SMA (56.35) and 200-day SMA (62.23), confirming the downward trend, and also below the 21-day EMA (54.95). Momentum indicators also suggest weakness. The MACD is negative (-0.90), and the MACD histogram is also negative, indicating bearish momentum. The RSI is 34.80, suggesting the stock is approaching oversold territory, but this could simply reflect sustained selling pressure rather than an imminent reversal. The Stochastic Oscillator (17.22) is also very low. The ADX is elevated at 26.29, indicating a strong trend, which in this case is downward. Recent price action shows a minor bounce from a low of $52, but this appears to be a weak bounce within a broader downtrend. Given these signals, further downside is likely over the next 1-3 months.

U-Haul Holding Company's MD&A presents a somewhat mixed picture. Consolidated revenue increased to $1,630.47 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, compared to $1,548.49 million for the same period in 2024. This growth was primarily driven by an increase of $43.9 million in 'self-moving equipment rental revenues' and an increase of $18.5 million in 'self-storage revenues'. However, 'earnings from operations' decreased to $257.4 million from $306.2 million in the prior year, impacted by increased operating expenses and depreciation. The 'Life insurance premiums' also saw a decrease of $1.6 million. Regarding liquidity, 'net cash provided by operating activities' increased by $144.5 million for the first three months of fiscal 2026 compared to 2025, driven by timing of settlements. The company anticipates reinvesting approximately $1,275 million in its rental equipment fleet during fiscal 2026. Management states they will continue to focus on increasing transaction volume and improving pricing, product, and utilization for self-moving equipment rentals. They also plan to complete current storage projects and acquire new locations, indicating potential increased spending on acquisitions and new development in fiscal 2026. Inflationary pressures are noted as a potential challenge to maintaining operating margins.

The U-Hall Holding Company's Q1 2026 earnings call reveals a mildly bearish outlook. While adjusted EBITDA in the Moving and Storage segment increased 6%, net earnings declined significantly, with EPS dropping to $0.73 from $1.00 the previous year. Jason Berg, CFO, attributed $0.21 of the EPS decline to fleet depreciation and $0.12 to increased losses on rental equipment sales, noting that cargo vans are being sold at a loss due to higher initial costs and lower resale values. Although equipment rental revenue increased by just over 4%, transaction volumes remained largely flat, and July trends indicate continued revenue growth driven by higher rates rather than increased transactions. Sam Shoen acknowledged that it's 'way too early to tell' the ultimate potential of U-Box, despite its 16% revenue increase, but expressed optimism that it 'couldn't be as big as U-Haul is today'. The company is also slowing down real estate spending 'not because we don't believe in self storage or not because we don't want to expand, but because we want to be rational in our capital allocation'. The increased liability costs and depreciation headwinds, coupled with flat transaction volumes, suggest potential challenges in the near term.

UHAL's financial performance presents a mixed picture. Revenue has fluctuated, starting at $1649.86M in Q2 2024 and reaching $1630.47M in Q1 2025, indicating some variability but overall maintenance of a high revenue level. The gross profit ratio has remained consistently high, hovering between 0.84 and 0.95, suggesting strong core profitability. Operating cash flow is generally positive, with the latest quarter showing $598.38M, indicating the company is generating cash from its operations. However, total debt has seen a significant increase from $6.47B in Q2 2024 to no debt reported in the latest quarter, which could be interpreted as a positive sign of debt management but requires further investigation to understand the underlying reasons. Overall, the company exhibits strong revenue and cash flow, but the debt situation warrants a closer look to fully assess its financial health.

The company presents a moderately bullish investment profile based on its key metrics and financial ratios. Revenue has shown positive growth, indicating a healthy demand for its products or services. The gross margin has remained relatively stable, suggesting efficient cost management. The Return on Equity (ROE) indicates a solid return for shareholders. The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio suggests the company is appropriately valued by the market. The debt-to-equity ratio has seen a decrease, showcasing the company's improved financial leverage. The current ratio signifies the company's strong ability to meet its short-term obligations. Overall, the company demonstrates a stable and growing business model with a healthy balance sheet, making it a moderately attractive investment for the next 6-12 months.